The South Africa currency has been suffering high rates of volatility over the past couple of years. Characterized by a drastic decrease in value, many people wonder what the future of the rand will be and what the future holds for the South African economy, given that it has greatly been hit by the COVID-19 pandemic and the effects of the lockdown. Besides the pandemic, there are various factors such as high unemployment rate, low growth, and other fiscal issues that have also contributed to the decline of the currency. Despite suffering so many setbacks, the currency is gradually gaining ground as some of the issues that were affecting the county are being addressed.
According to Mike Keenan, the head of the currency strategy at Absa CIB, the South African rand will see a considerable improvement against the U.S. dollar by the end of the year, as a significant part of the economic problems that faced prior to the pandemic are priced-in.
In late March, the currency plunged as the COVID-19 pandemic spread all through the world, sending less secure business sectors into a remarkable collapse. In spite of losing around 5% to the rand in the course of recent months, the U.S. dollar is still against the currency of Africa’s most industrial economy by over 16.5% since the turn of the year. The rand was changing to the US at around 16.3285.
Aggravating the effect of the crisis on the currency, beyond the global economic downturn and the inherent prospects for a fall in developing market currencies, were a large group of prior economic factors. Already wrecked by low development and rising debt, the country’s last investment-grade sovereign FICO score was downgraded by Moody’s to junk in March.
Keenan stated that they think a ton of that risk is currently priced into the growth of the currency. Despite the fact that things like low development and the monetary circumstance won’t pivot, for the time being, he thinks the market conditions are progressively becoming in favor of the rand more and emphasize on the recovery of the prices of products as support for the export-driven cash and the US dollar weakness.
He further said that he thinks the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) is near the end of its cutting cycle, so the rand might get to 15.75 by the end of the year.
Key in the information details
South African GDP (total national output) shrunk by 51% on a yearly basis in the second quarter, as bounce-back is foreseen in the third quarter as lockdown measures have greatly eased off. Keenan expects that a few divisions, like the hospitality and travel industry, will take more time to return to how they were before the pandemic stroke, while others, like property, have indicated signs of repressed demand making it through as the lockdowns measures were being lifted. This change in the value of the rand, although minor, has greatly boosted the activities of Forex traders in the country, leading many South Africans to take advantage of the XM minimum deposit in ZAR to join XM FX, and according to a chart from TradingView, many new traders are breaking through the barrier of uncertainty that loomed the currency market and making profits as the rand is expected to attain a stable rate against the US dollars in the foreseeable future.
He said that there will be failures as well as wins from this and that it will be significant in the figures of the third quarter to see how the different parts play out.
Keenan also stated that they must truly examine the detail of the information instead of just the feature figure, so that the sectors coming back can be seen and also the sectors that are still going through a lot of pressure, and ensuring that various sectors are employed by taking steps towards their improvement.
In South Africa, the rate of unemployment was high even before the pandemic, and Keenan recommended that the key would be indications of growth in mass employment sectors like the manufacturing industry.
Notwithstanding, these areas also face battles originating before the coronavirus pandemic, with Tito Mboweni, Finance Minister, takes measures to subdue resistance inside the decision ANC on the much-promoted reform of enterprises that are owned by the state, and the administration entangled in a fight in court with worker’s guilds over the freezes of wages of public sector employees so as to make sure about more monetary space.
Uncertainties that are faced by the South African Currency
US Elections
Worldwide business sectors have a sharp eye cast on the up and coming presidential election in the US in November, which will probably expand market unpredictability as we approach the declaration of the elections. This unpredictability could support potential gain to the USD/ZAR pair as the USD could give a place of refuge to chance disinclined speculators. The way things are, the Democratic competitor Joe Biden is ahead of the pack as indicated by factual surveys.
Going into the political decision, the USD is the shortest as it’s been in more than ten years a month from the presidential elections. Historical information shows an inversion to a more neutral position in USD as the time is getting closer, which could bring about a USD short press (which is bad for the ZAR).
Stimulus Checks on South African
Extra stimulus checks could be not too far off from being approved, which would almost certainly help EM currencies. Success for Joe Biden may make a simpler way toward a financial boost bundle.
The fight against corruption by President Cyril Ramaphosa
Light has been shed on numerous instances of corruption battles by the news over a wide span of time that has, at long last, brought about some legal and financial outcomes. This is positive news for South Africans as well as foreign speculators, as this could give a lift to the nation’s investor confidence going ahead. If President Ramaphosa stays resolute in his attitude toward corruption, the price action of the USD/ZAR pair could keep pushing toward pre-pandemic levels.
